Conflictive Nature of Water Politics in Central Asia
Conflictive Nature of Water Politics in Central Asia
Water as a Source of Conflict
Water as a Source of Conflict
Outline of the Paper
ü
Introduction
ü
Historical Background of the Central Asian States
ü
Importance of Water for the Region
ü
Rivers
o
Syr Darya
o
Amu Darya
ü
Russian Influence over Water Politics
ü
Environmental Disaster in Central Asia
o
Aral Sea
ü
Golden Century Lake Projects
vs. Water Disaster
ü
Expert view of the Water Conflict
ü
Water Managements Suggestions
ü
Conclusion
Introduction
|
As it can be viewed in the
above mentioned Figure 1[3]
that Syr Darya is flowing from Kazakhstan to the border of, simultaneously,
Northwest Kazakhstan, Southeast Uzbekistan, Eastern Border of Tajikistan and
then to Kyrgyzstan. While on the other hand, Amu Darya is flowing on the border
of Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan and proceeds to Tajikistan.[4] This
random movement of the river is the reason of conflict.
Historical Background of the Central Asian States
Central Asian succeeded
from the imperial rule of Soviet Russia after the decline of the Soviet Union.
These states were so called Muslim and were a perfect example of Russian
creation of ‘Soviet Man’. These states are called the ‘Soft Underbelly of
Russia’.[5]
Theses central Asian countries used to produce in agriculture sector. Amu Darya
and Syr Darya are the major source on which they depend, particularly
Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and Kazakhstan. For Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan,
water is the most important issue otherwise there economy will be affected
badly. Indirectly, this is the issue of national security and economic interest
for central Asian States. The excessive growth of population in the past years
have also increased the demand for land and is causing downfall for the
agriculture industry as well. These countries have stated to have increase
their irrigation for agricultural sector. Turkmenistan has started cultivation
of lans to make use of uncultivated land. Even the privatize sectors of
industry have also grown cotton production in southern Kazakhstan. There is
enough water in Central Asia. The dire need of good management of system can
elevate the tensions over water distribution. The massive overuse, and inter
and intra state tensions over distribution clearly state that these issues will
only cause conflict than cooperation in future.
Importance of the Water for the Region
Though Caspian Sea is in the neighbor
of Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan but they can only utilize it for extraction of
oil and energy reserves. The above mentioned picture clearly states the poor
condition of the sea of the land. Man is blessed by what has been blessed to
him. Man is unthankful for not caring the blessing. In this context, the point
has come out to be true. This is a Land locked region which has no access to
the international seas and sea routes. Central Asia is blessed by Fresh water
reserves which are being spoiled and not exploited for the use of mankind.
The major issue as described by Ahmed
Rashid in his Book “The Resurgence of Central Asia” in the chapter “The
Mountains of Islam – Tajikistan” says that the reason of less water in the
region is rain as well. The rain of Monsoon is contained by the Higher
Mountains in Tian and Pamir.[7]
On the other hand Kyrgyzstan is contained by the Mountains of Everest[8]
and this is the reason that these rains of Monsoon shower in the downstream
areas of Afghanistan, Pakistan and India causing floods. While if they could
shower these landscapes then there were chances that’s there could be less
water related conflicts in the region. According to geographic altitude, these
mountains have a rather dark impression for themselves. But these mountains are
so huge in Tajikistan that they cover 90% of Tajikistan territory. Tajikistan is not a cultivated land such as
and this is the reason they have less use of water in irrigation system. But
they need water and for the water share in the region they have to share its
management as well.
Rivers of
Central Asia
Syr Darya: There are
two major rivers in Central Asia which flow in the whole of central Asian
region. First river is Syr Darya which has two flows. One moves in the
Kyrgyzstan and eastern Uzbekistan; flows 2212 kilometers; while the other one remains
in the north west of Uzbekistan and southern Kazakhstan. Uzbekistan’s Naryn
River and Kara River are also benefited by Syr Darya. Syr Darya sanitations is
over 200,000 square kilometer. This is a really large amount but it is the half
of the flow as compared to Amu Darya.
Amu Darya:
Second major river of Central Asia is Amu Darya. Total length of Amu Darya is
2400 kilometers and its sanitation of water across the land is 534,739 square
kilometers which is double the flow of Syr Darya. The sources of water flow in
the river are mountains. There is a third river Zarevshan River but it is not
of such great importance as compared to Amu Darya and Syr Darya. Amu Darya
drain a vast range of land. This includes the lands of Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan,
Afghanistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. It touches the border of Tajikistan
to the border of Pakistan China. 60% of the drainage lies in Tajikistan,
Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. While 40% facilitates the land of Afghanistan.
Because of various river tributaries only 200,000 square kilometer contributes
to water in the river, actively. These river tributaries drain water to desert
areas which is destroying a very expensive capital resource. The rains schedule of this region
is very tough as mentioned above that it only rains 12 inches a year.[9]
Russian Influence over the Water Politics
In the Cold War era, the intension of
Soviet Block was to spread its Marxian prosperity in the region. They started
to increase agricultural production in 1950. This was the good region for
agricultural production and could have been proved a well location for
agricultural setup. They moved the plan for utilizing the Central Asian River’s
basin. This comprehensive plan was forwarded by Central Planning organization
and ministries in Moscow to direct water the water management of Central Asia. [10]
Five year plan was directed, which was funded by central budgets of the Soviet
Union. The basins were designed and developed by the regional design institutes
for multi use of water in the various sectors at once. This plan gave several
limitations on water allocation between republics and set a target for the
development of irrigated lands within time bound. This did not end up like
this. The designs were in the facilitation of the Central Asian Republics when
united but when they got independence the matter turn worse. It was the worst
design of Soviet Union that Aral Sea is shrinking as it is pictured in Figure
2. The world’s fourth largest lake is now sixth largest lake and has shrunken
almost half. The water level has dropped from 13-18 meters. It has become the desert
flat also known to Kazak as toxic wasteland. The salt and poisonous dust has a
very bad impact on the agriculture. This has also caused serious health issues.
It has dramatic impact on climate which is getting hotter and arid. Russian had
the plan to melt the glaciers by usage of nuclear and fill the lake. But were
criticized and did not carry forward the plan.[11]
Russians should be blamed for building lots of dams without considering the
importance of nature. Their ultimate purpose was to cultivate and irrigate the
land; without any rational and expert’s consideration they just moved on. There
management should be regarded worst because the quota they introduced for the
lads was favorable to cotton producing republics of Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan
and Kazakhstan. None of the consideration was given to the mountainous
countries of Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan.
Environmental Disaster in Central Asia
All the formulated policies of Russian Federation and
incompatibility of the independent republics of Central Asia have brought about
the environmental disaster in Central Asia. These disasters have not only
lasting impact but have bad impression on several important issues for human
beings: Agriculture, Climate, Sea, Health, Economic
industry and Water Energy. We must see the Impacts on Aral Sea.
Aral Sea
Aral Sea is the only sea which is now
shrinking to the death. There are the chances that it would not be in the
position to take hold in the future. It might result in complete dried up and
an environmental chaos. The River flow will be minimized and the Glaciers would
be much supportive and this will enraged a violent conflict in the region and
would not be sorted out and this will put the world in the threat of nuclear
war. The very bad impact of this area of the incompatible republics will
certainly wage a nuclear war and this nuclear war is going to threat the
security and peace of the world. These nuclear assets of Russia remained in the
region and were occupied by these states. If these nuclear weapons are used,
the peripheries and the neighboring countries will be at the most dangerous
situation of extinction. Hence this is the time to worry about the situation of
what should be done to safe the sea and water resources.
Figure 3[12]
indicate the situation of Aral Sea in 2012. The shore line can be observed that
it has almost reduced to nothing. The central part of the sea is going to be
completely dried soon.
Now we are going to see these impacts on the health of the
republic. They are as followed:
Agriculture:
The major impact will be on agriculture sector and as it is stated before that
these regions produce the water thirsty crops and these crops are not only
water thirsty but demand the continuous irrigation. If the level / flow of Amu Darya
or Syr Darya reduces; it will badly impact the agricultural lands. Still there
are disputes of Tajiks with Uzbeks, Uzbeks with Kazaks and Kazaks with the rest
of the republics. Kazakhstan blocks the water supply and there start a conflict
between the Uzbeks and Kazaks. In return Uzbeks stop the agricultural supply to
Kazakhstan and then they are compelled to restart it. On the other hand,
Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan block the energy supply and this creates problem. In
such situation, Kazaks have to restore the flow of water. This is pertinent to
mention that Toktogul Dam has importance in this context. This is the largest
hydro-electric and irrigation project of Central Asia. Its reservoir is 230
meter high and has the storage ability of 20 Km3.[13] It
has the ability of generating 1200 Megawatt per year which is distributed among
Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kazakhstan and Russia. When it was under
Soviet’s control, it proved to be a better scheme in economic, social,
agricultural and developmental aspects. Since, it is not controlled by Russia,
lack of central authority, there have been issues which are causes of cross
border tensions. The demand of Uzbeks and Kyrgyzstan has an increasing demand
in irrigation which is not solving since long. But this project will not work
further if the flow of the rivers will be impacted.
Climate:
Climate is very hotter and dryer as compared to the former years because the
salty water of Aral Sea has reason after drying up to pollute the area with
toxic air. Recently there occurs a clash of Uzbekistan because of dry salt in
the wind. This dry salt is vastly impacting the cultivated land of Uzbekistan.
Which in result are not capable of producing goods and they are very bad on the
growth rate as well. Thus the climate shift is disastrous for the region.
Particularly, it is the water drying up which has caused the real problem. The
emission of poisonous gas has increased as well. The central Asian region is in
the series of conflict and world need to have focus on them as quickly and
possibly as it can be.
Health:
The health Issues are related with the drinking water, which now contains the
poisonous mater resulting in the diarrhea and malnutrition.[14] This
issue is not the problem of one central Asian state but it is the issue of all
the central Asian states. Because one has received wider impact and the other
one has less wide impact but it is dangerous for the health sector. Recently, news
revealed that there was a gene transformation in the eggs of fishes of Syr
Darya. This is a really worst scenario in the case of bio-diversity.
Economy:
These regions compete with Egyptian cotton and produce the one of the finest
cotton of the world but it has several limitations. Agriculture is being
impacted. They have less water for irrigation and producing cotton. There
export of energy is also a major issue of conflict. There lies nothing to bring
a better involvement to the boost of industry than to sit and cry over spilt
milk.
Water
Energy: Hydro-electricity and wind mill electric generators are the most
reliable source than any other. It is safer than nuclear energy impacts. It
does not put an end to the resources of nature such as coal and gas. It
provides us with feasible energy depending on the nature. Secondly, the fresh water
reserves still can be utilized. Thirdly, it is the same water which can be
further used for irrigation purposes. The problem lies nowhere but it lies in
the non availability of water. In this context Toktogul Dam has immense
importance and despite of its significance, it can not be utilized because of
the clashes over the distribution of its energy and irrigation.
Golden Century Lake Project vs. Water Disaster
The
ongoing project which has captured the attention of all the states is Golden
Century Lake Project. This Project is the initiation of Turkmenistan in the
desert of Karakum. This project is very controversial in the region which is
already facing the worst scenario of environmental sufferings and it will cause
more loss to Aral Sea. Accordance to UNDP Report in 2005, this project of
Turkmen which was initiated in October 2000 began to function without
considering the regional powers and was not asked by the experts of the environment.
This project consumed 9 billion US Dollar. It has the depth of 100 meters and
as it will be completed it will contain the 130-150 cubic kilometer of water.
Some news from source has dispatched that this scheme will be a water security
and will facilitate 4000 square kilometer of farmland. But scientists are
afraid of this because they think that this huge project will disturb the
eco-system completely and Turkmens will be creating a complete dessert in the
space of Aral sea.[15] Besides the possible environmental
impact there is also a possibility of conflict on upstream and downstream water
rights to Amu Darya. Uzbekistan would be the first victim of the project since
water will be drained from Amu Darya to maintain the level in the lake. There are some controversies about the project that
to cool down the nuclear reactor this project is initiated. After cooling down
with water the heat will generate and water will be evaporated. The Salt wind
will spread all over the land and will vastly impact the air. Arid air mixed
with salt is going to be dangerous because it will have a lasting impact on the
ecological system of the world. The flow of air suggests that they are most
North western, which may impact Russian and European countries as well. This conspiracy
theory is true of false, it will be revealed soon but the present situation of
Aral Sea shrinking is really worst and wrecking.
Water Management suggestions
The suggestion in this regard to
central Asian Countries is to improve the diplomatic relation. There should be
the policy of compromise. If they do not compromise they will die of water. They
are the richest regions in natural resources and have the worst form of
extraction for them. They are the Heartland of Mackinder yet they are so
incompatible to come over there problems. The really genuine situation to them
is to come at the discussion benches and should make better stances for them. They
must share a communal fund to make improvement in the irrigation system
so the water must not get wasted. The proper program should be launched by all
the states, equally responsible, for the water so that it must not get wasted.
There are some projects which should be launched by them to clear out the
poisonous matter from the edible. The Environmental rehabilitation can
be possible if they bring in the plants which can reduce the salt level in the
air and could save the people from skin disease caused by arid air. Nuclear
Projects should be subsided and Turkmen should not carry forward the Golden
Century Lake Project which is really disastrous for the people environment.
It can undo the cooperation of these states. This is the most suitable solution
which is hidden in the cooperation and unity as it was in the time of Russian
Federation.
Conclusion
Aral Sea survival is reciprocal to
economic growth. It is need of time to save the Sea from shrinking. It has
shrunken but further it should not be let for shrinking. Water Governance is a
mutual issue which can be resolved by the joint projects. If these joint
projects can abet in managing the water and governing it well. Then we are sure
that the water of the region will not be wasted and care of these natural
resources will bring them great advantages. Hydro Power plan is the best way to
solve the energy crisis. Uzbekistan or Turkmenistan can supply the gas from
Caspian Sea to the regions like Kyrgyzstan so that it can facilitate them. It
will increase harmony in the region. Climate, environment, food and toxic waste
are the issues which must be resolved by resolving the water conflict. These
are directly and indirectly related with water. Solution and prosperity of
Central Asia lies in regional cooperation which can be solved through mutual
cooperation of these states.
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(accessed December 23, 2012).
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Basin." Environmental Eart Science (Springer), no. 6 (January
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Rashid, Ahmed. The Resurgence of Central Asia.
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http://www.toktogulgeoenvironment.com/about.htm (accessed jANUARY 2, 2013).
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[1]
Corvalan, Carlos. Ecosystem and Well Human
Being., International Health, Geneva: World Health Organization, 2005.
[2] Central Asia: Water and Conflict., International Report, Brussels: International Crisis
Group, 30 May 2002.
[3] Hitz, Julia Apland. "State of the Planet." The
Earth Institute, Columbia University. October 06, 2010.
http://blogs.ei.columbia.edu/2010/06/10/understanding-water-conflict-in-central-asia-and-solutions/
[4] Ibid,.
[5]
Rashid, Ahmed. The Resurgence of Central
Asia. Karachi: Oxford University Press, London, 1994.
[6] Lindsey, R. "EarthObservatory.NASA.Gov." Nasa.gov.
August 25, 2000.
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/WorldOfChange/aral_sea.php
[7] Rashid,
The Resurgence of Central Asia.,
[8]
Ibid,.
[9]
Rakhmatullaev, Shavkat , and Frederic Huneau.
"Groundwater resources Use and Management in the Amu Darya River
Basin." Environmental Eart Science (Springer), no. 6 (January
2012): 1183-1193.
[10] McKinney, Daene C. "The University of Taxas at
Austin." Ce.Utexas.Edu. November 28, 2003.
http://www.ce.utexas.edu/prof/mckinney/papers/aral/CentralAsiaWater-McKinney.pdf
[11]
Central Asia: Water and Conflict. International Report, Brussels: International Crisis
Group, 30 May 2002.
[12] Lindsey, R. "EarthObservatory.NASA.Gov." Nasa.gov.
August 25, 2000.
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/WorldOfChange/aral_sea.php
[13] Science for Peace and Security, North Atlantic Treaty
Organization. October 2008.
http://www.toktogulgeoenvironment.com/about.htm
[14]
Annette Prüss-Üstün, Robert Bos, Fiona Gore,
Jamie Bartram. Safer Water, Better Health. International Report, Geneva:
World Health Organizations, 2008.
[15] Tahir, Muhammad. Muhammadtahir.com. Feb 8,
2006. http://www.muhammadtahir.com/Articles/060117ca.html
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